DailyPakistan.Online

Introduction

Operation Herof has pushed Balochistan from a regional security story into a national economic problem.

2026 will show whether the price tag stays on a ledger or spreads into every road, port and power plant. I've covered a similar topic in Economic Forecasts for Pakistan in 2026: Key Trends and Insights.

This post connects the security move to delayed infrastructure, altered budgets, and investor behavior so you can see the likely cost in 2026.

Sound familiar? Why does this matter?

• What stalled, and how long those delays can last.
• Where money shifts, from projects to security and what that means for services.
• How investors react, from pulling back to asking for higher returns.

I used open reporting and public data up to June 2024.

I may not have the latest classified updates. If you want, I can flag where new information would change the picture. In a previous post about ICC Sanctions on Pakistan If They Boycott T20 World Cup 2026 Supporting Bangladesh: What You Need to Know, I explained this in more detail.

Why this matters for Pakistan's 2026 economy

Why this matters for Pakistan's 2026 economy

Quick version: a security shift in Balochistan changes more than local policing. It feeds straight into growth, prices, and investor confidence across Pakistan. For more context, read: How the Current Pakistan Economy is Shaping the Future of Cricket in 2026.

Think of it as a chain linking security to output and prices.

Here's the kicker: security → higher operating costs → project delays → cost overruns → lower near-term output. Read that as jobs down, output down, tax receipts down. If you're interested, I also wrote a guide on Gold Prices in Pakistan Dip as Global Markets Stabilize: January 17, 2026 — What Investors Need to Know.

What the security shift changes for growth and inflation

Growth is one channel. When firms and builders face more security risk, they pause new spending.

That pause stalls capital expenditure and weighs on near-term GDP.

• GDP growth hit via stalled capex: Projects stop or slow, leading to weaker construction and industrial activity in 2026.
• Price shocks from transport bottlenecks: If routes and logistics get disrupted, transport costs rise and those costs show up as higher consumer prices.
• Investor risk premium: Extra risk pushes lenders and investors to demand higher returns, which feeds into higher interest rates and pressure on the currency.

How local disruption becomes national drag

Local troubles can spill out fast. Districts that host big projects or ports see job losses first.

Suppliers and contractors across provinces feel the pinch next.

Another thing to consider: the causal chain repeats across sectors and regions, amplifying the initial shock. For more context, read: Expert Insights: Pakistan's 2026 Economic Forecast and What It Means for Investors and Citizens.

Sound familiar?

• Slowed construction activity: Less work on roads, energy and housing in 2026, with ripple effects for cement, steel and services.
• Higher borrowing costs for infrastructure: Banks and bond investors charge more when risks rise, so public and private projects get more expensive to finance.
• Short-term unemployment: Workers in affected districts face layoffs or reduced hours, and local demand falls as a result.

Regional spillovers to trade and ports

Balochistan sits on key routes and ports. Disruption there hurts cargo flows, shipping schedules and regional trade links.

Delays cost money and push up prices for importers and exporters.

• Transport bottlenecks: Slower shipments mean higher inventory costs and more expensive goods for consumers and firms.
• Port throughput falls: Reduced throughput lowers customs revenue and raises per-container handling costs that feed into inflation.
• Trade competitiveness: If exporters face delays and higher costs, Pakistan may lose orders to faster, cheaper rivals.

What likely shows up in 2026: slower construction, higher borrowing costs for big projects, and pockets of short-term unemployment in affected districts.

Growth rates may dip and inflation could tick up because of higher transport and financing costs.

One honest note: I can explain channels and likely directions, but I cannot give precise numeric forecasts without current data and formal models.

The direction of the risks is clear from the causal chain above.

What Phase II of Operation Herof actually entails

What Phase II actually entails

Phase II is the active, hands-on part of the campaign. It moves from planning and targeted strikes to wide area control and day to day security pressure.

Logistics change how people and goods move in Balochistan during this phase.

Phase II objectives and geographic focus

• Main goal: Push armed groups out of transit corridors and population pockets, and hold those areas.
• Geographic focus: Coastal belt around Gwadar, the Quetta-Kandahar axis, the Khuzdar-Bela corridor, and insurgent pockets in central Balochistan.
• Priority targets: Road junctions, border crossing approaches, supply hubs, and isolated towns used for rest and resupply.
• Local aim: Secure the arteries that goods and people use, not just empty terrain.

Timeline

• Expected duration: Several months of high activity, then a longer holding phase that could stretch into a year depending on results.
• Phases inside Phase II: push and clear, hold and build, handover to local security elements.
• Milestones: initial area clears in weeks, sustained control measured in months, normalization tracked over quarters.

Troop and asset deployment

• Types of forces: infantry units, mechanized brigades, paramilitary troops, special forces for raids, and local police reinforcement.
• Air and tech support: helicopter assault, surveillance drones, and tactical air cover for rapid reaction.
• Equipment: armored vehicles, mobile checkpoints, field hospitals, engineering units for route clearance, and communications gear.
• Checkpoints and logistics footprint: fixed checkpoints at major junctions, mobile checkpoints on highways, forward operating bases near hot spots, and convoy routes with escort teams.
• Numbers: Official troop counts are limited in public reports; local media and analysts give ranges but classified details are not available here.

Rules of engagement and civilian safeguards

• Rules of engagement: Mix of targeted raids and area control, with emphasis on identifying combatants before lethal force in populated areas.
• Civilian safeguards: Civilian check-ins, curfew notices, and designated safe corridors for civilians in some areas.
• Practical gap: Rapid operations can still cause mistakes and delays for civilians, even when safeguards exist.
• Accountability: Authorities say there will be complaint mechanisms and local liaisons, but those systems often take time to work well.

Operational tactics that increase disruption, and how they hit the economy

• Sustained patrols: More patrols mean slower traffic, frequent stops, and unpredictable delays. That raises transport costs and reduces delivery windows for businesses.
• Prolonged curfews: Shops close earlier, markets lose hours of trade, and daily wage earners lose income. Production schedules for factories and ports shift and slow down.
• Supply-chain checkpoints: Goods are inspected, permits checked, and trucks rerouted. Perishable items suffer, inventory costs rise, and traders factor in longer lead times.
• Convoy-based logistics: When escorts are needed, trucking capacity can fall and schedules tighten, increasing costs and reducing flexibility for firms.